### Name: UKDriverDeaths
### Title: Road Casualties in Great Britain 1969-84
### Aliases: UKDriverDeaths Seatbelts
### Keywords: datasets

### ** Examples

require(stats); require(graphics)
## work with pre-seatbelt period to identify a model, use logs
work <- window(log10(UKDriverDeaths), end = 1982+11/12)
par(mfrow = c(3,1))
plot(work); acf(work); pacf(work)
par(mfrow = c(1,1))
(fit <- arima(work, c(1,0,0), seasonal = list(order= c(1,0,0))))
z <- predict(fit, n.ahead = 24)
ts.plot(log10(UKDriverDeaths), z$pred, z$pred+2*z$se, z$pred-2*z$se,
        lty = c(1,3,2,2), col = c("black", "red", "blue", "blue"))

## now see the effect of the explanatory variables
X <- Seatbelts[, c("kms", "PetrolPrice", "law")]
X[, 1] <- log10(X[, 1]) - 4
arima(log10(Seatbelts[, "drivers"]), c(1,0,0),
      seasonal = list(order= c(1,0,0)), xreg = X)